In the autumn 2024 the Danish parliament decided on an ambitious plan to reduce greenhouse gas emission and emissions to water bodies. This includes the establish 250.000 ha forest before 2045. By that, the Danish MOSAIC policy lab went from a research project feature to a real-world setting challenge. How we can achieve such a target requires insight into landowners' motivation and drivers of change. Land in Denmark is largely privately owned. How can we afforest that much, such that both the landowners and society benefit? This requires close collaboration with various actors. This booklet illustrates the context, as well as the type of research and research questions being conducted in MOSAIC to answer that question.
Afforesting 250.000 ha is a lot in a small country where the current forest cover is approximately 651.757 ha. The current afforestation rate is around 1.500 ha a year. To reach the goal this needs to increase to 12 500 ha each year the next 20 years.
“With this agreement we are drawing a new green map of Denmark” - Minister of Environment Magnus Heunicke in the press release regarding the agreement, June 24, 2024
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Stakeholder engagement is needed for successful large-scale land use changes. Research can inform such discussions. Here Clara Ryge is presenting preliminary research from MOSAIC to a group of around 300 stakeholders including, politicians, forest and farm consultants, municipalities, lobbyists within forest and nature and other stakeholders from the Danish forestry sector.
“Following the Forest Convention, the minister agreed with a group of parliamentarians to revise the Forest Act in order to better support wild nature and biodiversity.” - Poul Erik Lauridsen, Director of the Danish Climate Forest Fund
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A survey of landowner motivations for afforestation was conducted and results documented in a report.
“To understand landowner motivations, talking with them is essential. But sometimes the vocal ones can drive a discussion. By using a survey, we ensure that we get to hear opinions from a representative part of the landowners, and not only the ones that are already engaged and speak the loudest.” - Clara Ryge, PhD student at University of Copenhagen
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We do not only learn from talking with stakeholders; we also learn from analysing past enrolment in agri-environmental schemes. Here we see extracts of Samuel Sebsibie Kebede’s econometric analysis on analyzing additionality and spillover effects: how much of the subsidized grassland conservations are additional?
“Observing actual changes when a new scheme is implemented requires advanced econometrics. Luckily the methods have improved a lot in recent years, so that we can infer causal relationships, i.e. we can distinguish whether it is due to a new subsidy scheme that a land use change happens or something else” - Samuel Sebsibie Kebede, PhD student at University of Copenhagen
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Reaching policy goals requires actions. Here MOSAIC policy lab partner, Lea Ravnkilde Møller, is taking a walk in a newly established forest.
Quote: “Afforestation on agricultural land as a climate change mitigation tool is a collaboration between landowners and funders that must be carried out in a transparent and trustworthy manner” - Lea Ravnkilde Møller, The Danish Climate Forest Fund
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