Scenario Planning Factsheet

In scenario planning various tools and techniques are applied (often in combination) to develop plausible and internally consistent descriptions of alternative future options (Johnson et al. 2012). Assumptions about future events or trends are questioned, and uncertainties are made explicit (Bohensky et al. 2006). Scenario planning typically takes place in a workshop settings, where participants explore current trends, drivers of change, key uncertainties, and how these factors might interact to influence the future (Schoemaker 1995). Although scenario planning is not a de facto valuation tool, scenarios can be used to explore how ecosystem services might change in the future and how these changes can influence human well-being.

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