For rewilding to occur, a combination of conditions must be met. Various factors may come into play, from agricultural abandonment to new forest set-asides and policy decisions on nature protection. But all things considered, which regions of Europe are most likely to experience significant rewilding?
This is one of the central questions WILDCARD researchers set out to answer, particularly through the work of our project partners at VU Amsterdam. While a robust conclusion requires extensive investigation and will only be available at the end of the project, their preliminary findings are already shedding light on potential rewilding hotspots. These insights, though early, help satisfy our curiosity and guide the progress of our other research streams while we wait for more precise answers!
Their approach is to analyse land cover in Europe through two lenses or modalities: rewilding through natural forest expansion, capturing agricultural areas that are likely to undergo rewilding following abandonment, and through proforestation, which occurs once forest management ceases, allowing forests to regenerate naturally. Both past and projected abandonment were considered. So, what do the results tell us?
Agricultural abandonment hotspots
For agricultural abandonment, Southern and Eastern Europe emerged as the regions with the most extensive potential hotspots in the future. Considering both partial and full agricultural abandonment, predictions point that the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal), Romania (central and southern), Bulgaria, Croatia, Serbia, and the Alps (northern Italy, Switzerland, and Austria) will emerge as hotspots for this process, with large agricultural areas projected to transition into natural ecosystems by 2050.
Additional notable regions include parts of Western Europe, particularly central and southern France and central areas of the United Kingdom. Most abandoned territories in the Alps and Eastern Europe are expected to experience full abandonment, leading to the establishment of new unmanaged or low-intensity forests. In contrast, most abandoned areas in Western Europe and the Iberian Peninsula are projected to undergo partial abandonment, resulting in mosaic-shaped ecosystems rather than forests. In Eastern European countries, partial agricultural abandonment is also widespread, especially in Romania and, to a lesser extent, Albania.
Proforestation / forest set-asides
In contrast, for proforestation, the most prominent and constant hotspots appear to be located in Northern Europe, with a focus on northern Finland and fragmented locations along Norway and northern Sweden.
In Eastern Europe, the highest frequencies of proforestation were observed in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro. Western, Central, and most of Southern Europe do not exhibit significant proforestation according to our preliminary results.
Underlying scenarios and methodology
Our preliminary findings are grounded in analyses of past data as well as projected land abandonment. The historical data analysis uses satellite data on land cover, coupled with existing maps and databases from former projects and initiatives. Future projections used models aligned with IPBES’ Nature Futures Framework, which outlines three scenarios of land use between 2020 and 2050 (“Nature for Nature”, “Nature for Society”, and “Nature as Culture”).
The areas most likely to be rewilded are those that consistently appear across all three scenarios.
In the next three years of WILDCARD, these results will be refined by updating the models and accounting for specific scenarios that represent different options of forest management strategies and implementation of biodiversity and carbon targets. These are aimed at improving our estimates of the potential for rewilding as well as depicting what locations could benefit from rewilding under alternative policy options.
For more information, read our report “Preliminary scenarios of potentially available land for rewilding due to agricultural abandonment and set-aside forests” by clicking the button below.